Drop Rate for Staff of the Traveler?

Sleeping Dragon

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Doe’s the Ashen Warlord not drop the Staff of the Traveller on IOS? I have literally tries 100 times in the Sunken Citidell to find it. Want it for the Ark.
 

VDX_360

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Are you re-loading a quick save, or resting at an inn to re-set the dungeon?
 

Sleeping Dragon

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Yes
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I can get different drops every time but not the staff
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Reloading a quick save
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I leave the citedell into the ashen wasteland and save then reload
 

p4ran0id

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I hope you reload a quick save before entering the dungeon, otherwise it won't work
 

Sleeping Dragon

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Yes. I reload a quick save outside the dungeon. I’ve gotten every other drop that the Warlord has multiple times.
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Is the Staff of the Traveller even obtainable on IOS?
 

VDX_360

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Re-loading the area auto-save and the quick save to try to re-roll drops is considered an exploit and is typically not a permitted topic on the forum. However, given the totality of the matter, it might be helpful to discuss.

Per the Wiki, the impressive Staff of the Traveler is dropped by the Ashen Warlords in the Sunken Citadel. There are only two of them in the Citadel.

I don't know what the drop rate is for the Staff at this time, but for ease of math, let's say it has a 5% drop chance. That means for every dungeon run you get two chances at 5% to get the staff., so everyone's favorite binomial calculations come into play:
1) After 5 dungeon runs, you have a 40% chance of getting at least one, and 60% of none.
2) After 25 dungeon runs, you have a 92% chance of getting at least one, and 8% chance of none.
3) After 50 dungeon runs, you have a 99+% chance of getting at least one, and less than 1% chance of failure.

So it's quite possible you are just lucky on this exact item. Luck is random so everyone gets a turn in the yuck bucket sometimes.

The math is discussed here.
 

VDX_360

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In short, it's easy to say "Hey, I killed it a 100 times, I should have gotten it by now." But that's not how randomness works.
 

VDX_360

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The other challenge with this exact item is the limit of total drops. Ashen Warlords have a lot of drops. Thus their max loot drop can be reached even before the game rolls for the staff. If I remember correctly, the staff is pretty low on the loot table. So you need to fail to get the first few drops AND succeed in getting the staff. That makes for a very low real-world chance to get it.

But don't worry, some 1-H Warrior got the staff to drop his very first kill and didn't even know how lucky he was.
 

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